Reports said that the adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) could occur more rapidly than the adoption of past disruptive technologies such as automobiles and electric power, with global take-up likely to hit 10% by 2030.
It has been reported that it arrived at this forecast by examining historical adoption curves for nine past disruptive technologies including automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet, and social media, along with the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption since 2009.
The report stated:
“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but [...] newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”
However, using the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves, as well as the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption, the report was then able to arrive at its prediction. It said that based on a metric called Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and Bitcoin’s predicted “CAGR of 60% we forecast that global Bitcoin adoption will break past 10% in the year 2030.”
The report said that Blockware Intelligence is the research arm of Blockware Solutions, a Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure company, so you might expect it to be bullish on adoption. The intelligence unit said it expects Bitcoin adoption to reach saturation quicker than many other disruptive technologies, given direct monetary incentives to adopt, the current macro-environment and because adoption growth will be accelerated by the internet.
The report further explained:
“From a consumer perspective, past technologies had convenience/efficiency-related incentives to adopt them: adopting automobiles allowed you to zoom past the horse and buggy, adopting the cell phone allowed you to make calls without being tied to a landline. With Bitcoin direct financially incentivized adoption creates a game theory in which everyone’s best response is to adopt Bitcoin.”
Likewise, Bitcoin, like the internet, smartphones, and social media, also derives benefits the more people that adopt the technology, which is known as the “network effect.”
Cryptocurrency adoption has been growing rapidly over the last few years. In 2021, global crypto ownership rates reached an average of 3.9%, with over 300 million crypto users worldwide, according to data from TripleA, a global cryptocurrency payment gateway.
Thus, blockchain data platform Chainalysis last year revealed that global adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency surged 881% from July 2020 to June 2021. It found Vietnam to have the highest cryptocurrency adoption, leading 154 countries analyzed, followed by India and Pakistan.